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			<h1>2012 map takes unfamiliar shape</h1>
		 
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			By <a href="http://www.politico.com/reporters/MaggieHaberman.html">MAGGIE HABERMAN</a> &amp; <a href="http://www.politico.com/reporters/ShiraToeplitz.html">SHIRA TOEPLITZ</a> | 

	
	
	

	
	
	
		
	

	
			
		

	10/9/10 7:15 AM EDT 
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				<p>If the newest Census Bureau estimates stay close to form, President Barack Obama&rsquo;s reelection roadmap could look considerably different than the one that took him to the White House in 2008. </p><p>
Back then, he won 68 percent of the electoral vote&nbsp;&mdash; 365 electoral votes in all&nbsp;&mdash; powered by wins in eight of the nation&rsquo;s 10 most populous states. But population growth and shifts of residents between states will impact the way electoral votes are reapportioned in advance of the 2012 elections, and it appears more votes are moving toward states that he lost and away from the ones he won the first time around. </p>
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Between reapportionment and the erosion of support in certain states and regions where he had success two years ago, the 2012 path to victory could become more complicated. </p><p>
&ldquo;It's certainly hard to argue that the shift ... is anything but [a problem] for Obama,&rdquo; said Tom Bonier of the liberal National Committee for an Effective Congress, which follows population trends and voting data closely. </p><p>
Nothing will be official, of course, until after December when the U.S. Census Bureau completes its tallies. That population data will determine how House seats are parceled out among the states as well as the allocation of electoral votes (the formula is a state&rsquo;s total number of House seats, plus two). </p><p>
But a study released late last month by Election Data Services reported that some of the biggest states Obama carried are poised to lose electoral votes while some of the biggest that opposed him are likely to gain. </p><p>
New York, the nation&rsquo;s third-largest state and an Obama stronghold in 2008, is likely to lose two electoral votes. The same is true for Ohio, another state carried by the president, which&nbsp;also will lose two. </p><p>
Other likely one-vote losers are Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania &mdash; Obama won all of them except Missouri and Louisiana. </p><p>
&ldquo;It does make it a little bit tougher on Democrats,&rdquo; said EDS President Kim Brace. &ldquo;It basically throws the electoral vote a little bit more toward the Republican side, with the shift going from the Northeast and the upper Midwest and to the South and to the West.&rdquo; </p><p>
&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not overly dramatic,&rdquo; he added, &ldquo;but if you get a real close election, it could [make] a difference. It&rsquo;ll change the mechanics, from a campaign standpoint, of which states [they] need to go after.&rdquo; </p><p>
According to the EDS estimates, the biggest winner will be Texas, a solid Republican state in 2008 that is expected to add four new electoral votes. </p><p>
The other likely beneficiaries of additional electoral votes are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington, all of which are expected to gain a seat each. Obama won Washington and Nevada, but lost the other four. </p><p>
Then there is Florida, site of a crucial Obama victory last time, which is set to pick up two new votes &mdash;making it all the more important in a close contest with a redefined map. </p><p>
&ldquo;We&rsquo;re extraordinarily excited about it and it means good things for us,&rdquo; said John Thrasher, the chairman of the Florida Republican Party. &ldquo;We&rsquo;re going to be an important state in 2012. Two more congressional seats will make it an even bigger deal. And certainly having the [Republican] convention here in Florida energizes our folks even more.&rdquo;</p></p>
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=437DA951-188B-4977-260AE40FAFA2D7C7">Dread-neck</a> <div>Party: Conservative</div></div>
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						Reply #1
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:28 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>People are fleeing the blue states because they're opressively taxing and the state governments are still going bankrupt They're moving to red states. Look at California and Illinois. Their state governments are barely able to function because they're running out of places to borrow money. It's insane.</p></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=610CC575-1C23-CEB9-149551B0EFE7FB61">poorsinner101</a> <div>Party: Republican</div></div>
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						Reply #2
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:30 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>This lets me post this picture!</p></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=6336D9D6-188B-498D-20EFAFB742BFD365">American911</a> <div>Party: NA</div></div>
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						Reply #3
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:33 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>Of course, noone would even think his destructive business policies have anything at all to do with him not getting reelected. Noooo...it's because of "voter shifts"....nice rationalization.</p></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=610CC575-1C23-CEB9-149551B0EFE7FB61">poorsinner101</a> <div>Party: Republican</div></div>
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						Reply #4
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:51 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><div >  <p>Copy it... Spread it... It is the Obama Ad for 2012!</p> <p>LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1</p> </div></div>

				
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						Reply #5
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:56 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p><br /> “It’s not overly dramatic,” he added, “but if you get a real close election it could [make] a difference. It’ll change the mechanics, from a campaign standpoint, of which states [they] need to go after.” </p> <p>It depends if the Republicans can put up a decent challenge this time around, Palin sealed McCain's fate early on. Just like Stockdale did to Perot.</p> <p>If insanity is repeating the same thing and expecting a different result, what do WE call re-electing the politicians that caused all the problems in the first place with an expectation that they will fix them?</p> <p>Don't Re-Elect ANY Incumbent Politician</p> <p><br /> "The care of human life and happiness and not their destruction is the first and only legitimate object of good government." --Thomas Jefferson</p></div>

				
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						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:56 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>It looks like Mr Potato Head could use a cig. </p></div>

				
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						Reply #7
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:04 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><div >  <p>It will make it so hard for the Obama Smear Machine to keep up! Every copy and post is a strike against them... EVERY POST COUNTS IN THE GOOGLE COUNTER!!!!!!!!! Click and copy and make it happen.... copy it then find a blog and post it!!!!!</p> <p>Don't stop! Stop the liberals in their tracks.... they hate this AD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!</p> </div></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=F6A13F26-188B-4976-D1D6BF5B223435FE">longtimeliberal</a> <div>Party: NA</div></div>
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						Reply #8
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:05 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p> Hillary is going to knock him out of the primary. The starry eyed like the rest of us have found out he is incompetent.</p></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=864BCD58-188B-498D-204B9BEADB95E89C">Wdyafo</a> <div>Party: Independent</div></div>
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						Reply #9
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:07 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>I never got a job from a poor man. Let’s reason this out; Jobs on the most part are created by the rich. They have an idea to expand their businesses; they chose to build a new plant, a new terminal or maybe a new industry. Once the decision to move forward is finalized, it’s time to build. Positions are needed to physically build the idea and all the materials needed to do this have to be provided. Hundreds or thousands of small business are back in production to provide all the necessary materials this rich man needs to fulfill his idea. Once finished, new jobs are created by hiring fulltime employees to run the new business.</p> <p>Now, once the business is running and a providing a product or service, a cost has to be applied. The first this that has to be in consideration is his TAXES, The rich man already know what he wants his profit margin to be so once his expenses are determined, a price on the product or service is applied.<br /> This is where our cost; the end user, comes in. Like it or not, it you were them, the cost you pay will have all the expenses and taxes built in to the retail cost. Do you understand??? Raise the tax; raise the cost of the product or service. This is the way it is.<br /> The rich will never make less money, again, like it or not. All these taxes we raise on the demonized rich will just be passed on to you.<br /> The only way to prevent this from happening is to let Government control everything. But then, that very same rich man decides it too costly to move forward with this idea and decides to retire and secure his current fortune and just enjoy his life.<br /> End result……………no new jobs!<br /> </p> <p>Please start using your God given ability to reason before you vote.</p></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=27D66850-1C23-CEB9-145097F3B0D099AF">Spirit of Seventy Si...</a> <div>Party: Conservative</div></div>
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						Reply #10
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:08 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p> The least of Obama's problems is the fallout of the census. How about his failure as President, with policies that have stalled economic recovery? How about runaway spending and increases in taxes? How about a failed foreign policy based on appeasement and apology? And how about the issue that more people self-identify as Conservatives with fewer moderates and liberals? I've heard that even if Obama carried the same percentages of conservatives (20%), moderates (60%) and liberals (89%), he would lose the 2008 election if held again. Add to that the increased numbers of GOP Governors after 2010, redistricting in the states as well as a shift from the rust belt to the sun belt, and it appears Obama will be a one-term President like Jimmy Carter. America will be returned to its people, not the Progressive minority.</p></div>

				
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						Reply #11
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:09 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><blockquote ><div><cite> HalfPastLate: Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:56 AM EST </cite></div> <p>Palin sealed McCain's fate early on.</p> </blockquote>  <p>Yea Right! And now she;s just a ordinary citizen controling the debate... Libtards have no clue and have no power!!!!</p> <div >  </div></div>

				
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						Reply #12
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:13 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>The next person that post's the Obama '12 ad... (just click drag, post) gets a $20 dollar bonus! and if they do it twice I'll make it $100,000...</p> <div >  </div></div>

				
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						Reply #13
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:14 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>Hey Dread-neck <br /> "People are fleeing the blue states because they're opressively taxing and the state governments are still going bankrupt They're moving to red states. Look at California and Illinois."</p>  <p>YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT!!!!<br /> I'm a contractor here in CA and it seems like my state government doesn't want me here! They're doing everything they can to chase my kind away. Now we're looking at worker's comp rates rising 27.7%. Insurances. Fees. Etc. We need to do an intervention and send our politicians to Alanonononononononononon. Get 'em off OPM (other people's money).</p></div>

				
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						Reply #14
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:15 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><blockquote><cite>HalfPastLate: Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:56 AM EST</cite> <p>Don't Re-Elect ANY Incumbent Politician</p> </blockquote> <p>Here Here.</p></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=29269709-1C23-CEB9-149B5B43F7641DF2">conserv</a> <div>Party: Conservative</div></div>
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						Reply #15
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:15 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><blockquote><cite>HalfPastLate: Oct. 9, 2010 - 7:56 AM EST</cite> <p>Don't Re-Elect ANY Incumbent Politician</p> </blockquote> <p>Here Here.</p></div>

				
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						Reply #16
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:19 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>It would appear to help the Democrat Candidate, Mrs. Clinton.</p></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=1AAC4DCD-188B-498D-20F29DBA86976802">adv2k1</a> <div>Party: Democrat</div></div>
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						Reply #17
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:20 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p> I predict the economy will be much better shape in 2012 than it is now. Republicans seem to forget history, about this time in Reagan term he was around 39% approval and 10% unemployment. THings turned around for him and they will for Obama as well. The ticket will be Palin / Newt 2012 and they will lose badly, and be Goldwater vs LBJ all over again. </p></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=65B8877C-188B-498D-2003FBA8926378A0">chris123456</a> <div>Party: NA</div></div>
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						Reply #18
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:21 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>Liberals are already compiling excuses for Obama's defeat in 2012. Its very entertainning to watch. </p></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=8B5FB3C5-1C23-CEB6-CAB7C9ACCEAFBDF1">reason 1</a> <div>Party: Independent</div></div>
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						Reply #19
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:22 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><p>Democrats are DOOOOOMED!</p> <p>And they only have themselves to blame.</p></div>

				
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						<div><a href="http://dyn.politico.com/snetwork/profile/profile_view.cfm?member_id=437DA951-188B-4977-260AE40FAFA2D7C7">Dread-neck</a> <div>Party: Conservative</div></div>
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						Reply #20
						<div>Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:23 AM EST</div>
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				<div class="submitted-comment clearfix"><blockquote ><div><cite> Juan de la Salsa: Oct. 9, 2010 - 8:14 AM EST </cite></div> <p>YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT!!!!</p> <p>I'm a contractor here in CA and it seems like my state government doesn't want me here! They're doing everything they can to chase my kind away. Now we're looking at worker's comp rates rising 27.7%. Insurances. Fees. Etc. We need to do an intervention and send our politicians to Alanonononononononononon. Get 'em off OPM (other people's money).</p> </blockquote>  <p>I'm in Illinois. It's the same thing. We are disasterously in debt, businesses have fled and unemployment has been above the national average. Our houses decline in value while our property taxes rise. We have a state income tax, high sales taxes, license plate fees, and toll booths that rob interstate truckers and we are still in the hole. Our Lt. governor running for governor says we need to raise taxes after he just gave his staff a 20% raise. Our state owes my son's school district over $5,000,000. They haven't given monies owed from the last school year. </p> </div>

				
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